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Grid Burden

Grid Burden

Who pays when private expansion becomes public infrastructure demand.

+34.2% national avg rate change·EIA retail sales·20172025

→ Public Cost · → Human Impact · → Market Pressure · → Disclosure Gap

U.S. residential benchmark: +34.2% (20172025, EIA retail-sales). States are scored against this.

Texas

ERCOTElevated correlation

Texas residential rates moved +40.5% (2017–2025) vs the U.S. +34.2%; ~81 data-center facilities sit within the state extent (heuristic count). Correlation only — not a causal claim about who funds grid upgrades.

15.47¢/kWh · 2025
Rate Δ (state)
+40.5%
vs U.S. benchmark
+6.3%
DC facilities (heuristic)
~81
Series
2017–2025

Evidence basis: EIA retail-sales residential price, 2017–2025 (15.47 cents per kilowatt-hour); U.S. benchmark +34.2%; DC count via bounding-box heuristic over curated + OSM facilities.

Ohio

PJMModerate correlation

Ohio residential rates moved +34.3% (2017–2025) vs the U.S. +34.2%; ~75 data-center facilities sit within the state extent (heuristic count). Correlation only — not a causal claim about who funds grid upgrades.

16.96¢/kWh · 2025
Rate Δ (state)
+34.3%
vs U.S. benchmark
+0.1%
DC facilities (heuristic)
~75
Series
2017–2025

Evidence basis: EIA retail-sales residential price, 2017–2025 (16.96 cents per kilowatt-hour); U.S. benchmark +34.2%; DC count via bounding-box heuristic over curated + OSM facilities.

Virginia

PJMModerate correlation

Virginia residential rates moved +32.3% (2017–2025) vs the U.S. +34.2%; ~295 data-center facilities sit within the state extent (heuristic count). Correlation only — not a causal claim about who funds grid upgrades.

15.28¢/kWh · 2025
Rate Δ (state)
+32.3%
vs U.S. benchmark
-1.9%
DC facilities (heuristic)
~295
Series
2017–2025

Evidence basis: EIA retail-sales residential price, 2017–2025 (15.28 cents per kilowatt-hour); U.S. benchmark +34.2%; DC count via bounding-box heuristic over curated + OSM facilities.

Arizona

WECC (AZ)Baseline

Arizona residential rates moved +23.2% (2017–2025) vs the U.S. +34.2%; ~28 data-center facilities sit within the state extent (heuristic count). Correlation only — not a causal claim about who funds grid upgrades.

15.32¢/kWh · 2025
Rate Δ (state)
+23.2%
vs U.S. benchmark
-11.1%
DC facilities (heuristic)
~28
Series
2017–2025

Evidence basis: EIA retail-sales residential price, 2017–2025 (15.32 cents per kilowatt-hour); U.S. benchmark +34.2%; DC count via bounding-box heuristic over curated + OSM facilities.

DC counts are an approximate bounding-box heuristic over curated + OpenStreetMap facilities, not precise in-state attribution (STASI F3). FERC rate-case filings and news coverage are below (Phase 2a). The allocation finding (who pays) is Phase 2b — gated on legal authorization. Aggregator, not author.

Research context - national scale

U.S. data centers consumed 176 TWh in 2023 — about 4.4% of total U.S. electricity. Projected to reach 325–580 TWh by 2028 (6.7–12% of U.S. electricity). Between 2017 and 2023, data-center power demand more than doubled, largely due to growth in AI servers.

Tier 2 · Government-commissioned·Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory / U.S. Dept. of Energy — 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report (Dec 2024)·updated Dec 20, 2024·next expected Dec 20, 2025·↗ primary source

FERC rate-case filings

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission proceedings naming data-center load, cost allocation, or large-load interconnection — surfaced verbatim from the official regulations.gov federal docket API. Aggregator, not author: we surface the filing, we do not characterize the finding.

Tier 1 · Primary record·66 dockets backfilled·2023-06-212026-06-09·FERC via regulations.gov, verbatim

as of Jun 17, 2026·FERC dockets via regulations.gov

as of Jun 20, 2026·FERC / regulations.gov + GDELT, live query

FERC orders — Federal Register

FERC orders published to the Federal Register — keyless public API (federalregister.gov), filtered for cost allocation, interconnection, and large-load terms. Title and abstract verbatim; aggregator, not author.

Source: Federal Register (federalregister.gov) · cadence: daily · asOf: 2026-06-18

Cost-allocation proceedings — news coverage

GDELT DOC 2.0 — public-domain live news index. Verbatim headlines and links only; we surface the coverage, we do not characterize the outcome.

No cost-allocation proceedings surfaced right now (the live news source may be rate-limited). No placeholder records are shown — this surface only renders real items (LAW 1).

Direct docket ingestion pending: Virginia SCC rate-case dockets (HTML portal — honest stub) · Texas PUC Interchange filings (SPA — honest stub). These public records exist but their portals are WAF/SPA-walled with no sanctioned structured API; they are honest stubs (no fabricated dockets, no scraping around a bot wall) and go live when a sanctioned access path exists.

How the industry can do betterBEI · Better Standard

Independent cost-allocation studies commissioned by public utility commissions — not facility developers — before rate cases are filed. Transparent projection of residential rate impact before interconnection agreements are signed. Ratepayer representation in FERC proceedings addressing large-load cost allocation, with adequate notice and plain-language summaries of what the proceeding means for residential bills.

Methodology & right of reply: rates are EIA primary-source residential series; data-center counts are an approximate bounding-box heuristic, not precise attribution. Bands describe CORRELATION (AI load present alongside above-benchmark rate growth), never causation — who actually funds grid upgrades is decided in FERC/PUC cost-allocation orders (tracked separately). Any state, utility, or operator may contest an input via research@brinley.institute; corrections with a public-record citation are published.